Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. Two findings stand out in this table. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Jason Kao Senate Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Maggie Astor To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Maggie Astor Kennedy Elliott Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? That being said, with a 56 member Democratic senate, four Republicans Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are likely to not abuse the filibuster, letting multiple legislation pass through with certain compromise. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Web2022 Senate. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. . 2022 Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. We rated every race in play in 2022. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Im Fivey Fox! Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics Click here! Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. 2022 Senate Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a 2024 Senate races. Alicia Parlapiano This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Nate Cohn Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. final pre-election results projection, click here. Ruth Igielnik Lazaro Gamio If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021). We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. Results The results are displayed in Table 5. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Explore the full list of Now the the crux of this article these are states that can go either way. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Lt. Gov. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. Lazaro Gamio Alicia Parlapiano Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Weve come out on the other side of covid. The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. Heres where we think votes remain. See the rest of our predictions. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Lazaro Gamio That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. What we expect this year 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. Ohio. Andrew Fischer Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Lazaro Gamio The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. All rights reserved. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. . Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. The facts are that the country is better off. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Maggie Astor Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage? Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. The party that wins two of the One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. But this work can get done during the campaign. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a prediction for Biden 2024. Despite a difficult environment, Gov. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave werent just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with negative sentiment. He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Maggie Astor Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. The results in Table 2 show that the 3 variable model was quite accurate, explaining 84% of the variance in the outcomes of individual Senate contests. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. *, Maine Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. Senate Projection. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. . , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. 2022 Missouri State Senate election - Wikipedia Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. . These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. Heres who won As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. GOP Gov. Follow the latest election results here , Ga. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. , Gov. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. Remember me? Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week.
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